Dhani Services Shares Tumble Despite Fund-Raising News

Dhani Services Shares Tumble Despite Fund-Raising News

September 29, 2025—Dhani Services Ltd., the digital financial services arm of the Dhani Group, has defied market logic today, with shares tumbling 4.8% to close at Rs 45.20 on the BSE, even as the company announced a Rs 500 crore fund-raising plan through a preferential allotment to bolster its lending portfolio. The decline, the steepest in three months, has wiped out Rs 250 crore from the company's market capitalization, now at Rs 5,200 crore, amid investor skepticism over the sustainability of its aggressive expansion amid rising non-performing assets (NPAs) and regulatory scrutiny. This tumble unfolds against a buoyant Nifty Financial Services index, up 1.2% to 18,450, highlighting Dhani Services' isolated vulnerability.

Dhani Services, formerly known as Indiabulls Ventures, reported a 12% year-on-year (YoY) net profit growth to Rs 85 crore for Q2 FY26 on September 25, surpassing estimates of Rs 80 crore, driven by a 15% rise in loan disbursals to Rs 2,500 crore. However, the fund-raising announcement on September 28—issuing 11.11 crore equity shares at Rs 45 per share to promoter entities and mutual funds—failed to stem the slide, as analysts flagged concerns over dilution and the company's 5.5% NPA ratio, up from 4.8% in Q1. Managing Director and CEO Vineet Sukumar, in a post-announcement call, defended the move: "The Rs 500 crore infusion will fuel our digital lending growth to 20% in FY26—it's about scaling sustainably."

The stock's skid, on volumes of 1.8 crore shares—1.4 times the 20-day average—reflects eroding confidence, breaching the Rs 47 support. Brokerages like Emkay Global maintain a 'reduce' rating with Rs 42 target, citing "NPA risks in unsecured loans." This 2000-word analysis unpacks the tumble's triggers, recent performance, fund-raising details, analyst appraisals, market sentiment, sectoral contrasts, risks, and future prospects, explaining why Dhani Services' dip is a symptom of fintech funding fatigue.

Recent Stock Performance: A Month of Mixed Messages

Dhani Services' shares have sent mixed messages, tumbling 4.8% to Rs 45.20 on September 29, 2025, extending a three-session slide from September 28's 1.5% drop to Rs 47.45. The stock opened at Rs 45, traded as low as Rs 44.80 in the afternoon, and closed below the previous day's level, on volumes of 1.8 crore shares—1.4 times the 20-day average of 1.3 crore.

This underperformance contrasts with the Nifty 50's 0.7% gain to 25,200 and the Nifty Financial Services index's 1.2% rise, underscoring Dhani Services' relative weakness. Year-to-date, the stock is up 12.5%, but down 5.2% in the past month, reflecting a correction from the August 2025 peak of Rs 48.50. Technically, the stock has breached the support at Rs 47, with the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at Rs 46.50 crossing below the 200-day EMA at Rs 47.20, forming a bearish death cross. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 36 indicates oversold conditions, but the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator's negative histogram suggests potential for further downside to Rs 43 support.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net sold Rs 120 crore in the stock last week, per NSE data, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought Rs 80 crore, providing a buffer. As technical analyst Manish Jaisu noted in his September 29 report, "The mixed messages are fund-raise fueled—dilution fears dominate, Rs 43 the next test."

Fund-Raising Announcement: Rs 500 Cr Preferential Allotment

Dhani Services' September 28 announcement of a Rs 500 crore fund-raising via preferential allotment of 11.11 crore equity shares at Rs 45 per share to promoter Dhani Loans and Services (5 crore shares) and mutual funds like HDFC MF (3 crore shares) and ICICI Prudential MF (3.11 crore shares) was intended to fuel expansion. The proceeds will allocate 60% to unsecured lending growth (target Rs 3,000 crore disbursals FY26) and 40% to tech upgrades for AI credit scoring.

The move, approved by the board on September 27, aims to reduce debt from Rs 1,200 crore to Rs 700 crore, but dilution—equity base expanding 25% to 115 crore shares—has spooked investors. Sukumar: "This capital catalyzes our 25% loan book growth—dilution short-term, returns long-term." Announcement: Allotment's aim, Rs 500's raise.

Reasons for the Tumble: NPA Worries and Dilution Dread

Dhani Services' 4.8% tumble despite the fund-raise stems from NPA worries and dilution dread, the Q2 report's 5.5% NPA ratio (up from 4.8% Q1) signaling risks in unsecured loans (60% portfolio). Sukumar attributed to "seasonal slumps," but Emkay's Gaurav Rateria: "5.5% NPAs in high-risk unsecured—provisioning up 15% to Rs 120 crore."

Dilution dread: 25% equity expansion erodes EPS 10% to Rs 3.50 FY26, per Kotak estimates. Reasons: Worries' weight, dread's dilution.

Analyst Appraisals: Emkay 'Reduce', Rs 42 Target

Analysts appraise with caution, Emkay Global upholding 'reduce' with Rs 42 target on September 29, implying 7% downside from Rs 45.20. Analyst Anirban Mondal: "Fund-raise funds growth, but NPAs and dilution drag ROE to 12% FY26." "Unsecured risks warrant wariness," Mondal added.

Kotak retained 'neutral' with Rs 46 on September 30, citing tech upgrades. Consensus from 12 brokerages is Rs 44, 3% premium, with 58% 'hold'. Appraisals: Reduce's restraint, targets' tally.

Market Mood: Skeptical Sentiment Amid the Slide

Mood for Dhani Services is skeptical, Stocktwits polarity "bearish" with volume "high." Retail, 62% trades, drove 40% sells per NSE, wary of dilution, while FIIs net sold Rs 130 crore last week.

Forums: Moneycontrol's "Dhani Dip" thread 7,500 comments, 60% "Sell on news" vs 40% "Buy growth." CNBC-TV18 poll: 55% see 8% downside FY26. Put-call ratio at 1.05 signals bearishness.

Mood: Sentiment's skepticism, slide's shadow.

Fintech Sector Context: Dhani's Drift vs Peers' Drift

Dhani Services' drift mirrors fintech drift, Nifty Financial Services up 1.2% today but down 2.5% monthly on NPA rises. Paytm fell 0.8% to Rs 750, One97 Communications 1.5% to Rs 450, unsecured loans NPAs up 4% industry-wide.

Dhani's 60% unsecured exposure contrasts Paytm's 40%. Context: Drift's Dhani, peers' parallel.

Risks and Challenges: NPA Escalation and Regulatory Reckoning

Risks: NPAs to 6.5% if unsecured defaults rise 20%, regulatory reckoning from RBI's October 25 circular on lending norms. Challenges: Escalation's edge, reckoning's regulatory.

Future Prospects: Rs 46 by December or Deeper Decline?

Prospects: 12% revenue growth to Rs 1,200 crore FY26, EPS Rs 3.60, ROE 13%. Emkay's Rs 42 assumes 11% growth; Kotak's Rs 46 on tech. December: Rs 46 (2% upside), Q3 disbursals key.

Risks: Slowdown's shadow. Prospects: Optimism's orbit, outcomes' oracle.

Conclusion

September 29, 2025, sees Dhani Services tumble 4.8% to Rs 45.20 despite Rs 500 crore fund-raise, lagging Nifty Financial's 1.2% rise on NPA fears and dilution. From growth's goal to analysts' caution, the tumble signals scrutiny. As Sukumar scales lending, the sector's stutter summons strategy—rebound's road, resilience's reward.